Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:24:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x428d…1c4e crypto 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate78%314W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$21
14 days−$24
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$127
weather 2% −$14
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -2.9% -12.1% 79% 52% -11.5%
≤30d 169 -5.2% -14.2% 76% 53% -13.9%
≤90d 405 -1.1% -10.5% 78% 51% -11.0%
all 405 -1.1% -10.5% 78% 51% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 51% -11.0%
10% -19.0% 29% -19.5%
15% -26.9% 15% -27.3%
20% -34.0% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses314 / 91
Open positions2
Markets (closed)405 / 407
History coverage49d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 81¢ 87¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$9 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 54m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $13 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $12 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.56 · official $10.56 (match) · 941 history records