Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x428f…5d1b crypto 240 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,293 (-8%) realized −$1,217 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate63%141W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day147.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$47
other 22% −$176
world 12% −$143
sports 9% −$838
politics 8% −$164
economics 2% −$12
tech 0% −$7
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 1% -16.6%
≤30d 225 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 1% -16.6%
≤90d 225 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 1% -16.6%
all 225 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 1% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 1% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 1% -24.6%
15% -29.7% 0% -31.8%
20% -36.5% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$1,217
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses141 / 84
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions15
Markets (closed)225 / 240
History coverage3d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day147.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Dominant" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? No 75¢ 78¢ $63 $66 +$2 (+3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 21¢ 23¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+10%)
Will Speed say "Hat trick" on stream? Yes 77¢ 52¢ $33 $22 −$11 (-33%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? No 30¢ 10¢ $37 $13 −$24 (-65%)
Will the announcers say "Really good play" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 58¢ 20¢ $24 $8 −$15 (-65%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? No 73¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the announcers say "Oh my God" or "Oh my Goodness" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 80¢ 65¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? Yes 29¢ 3¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-88%)
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? No 30¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will the announcers say "Verticality" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-91%)
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $14 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $38 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $13 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $27 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $137 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $24 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $23 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $35 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 15+ times during the Colombia vs Port Jun 28 $182 −$182 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $19 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia Jun 28 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Challenge" 5+ times during the Croatia vs Gha Jun 28 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $106 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $66 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $60 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $22 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $80 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $17 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $137 5h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 5h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $35 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.75 · official $176.73 · 675 history records