Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4291…6bad other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
politics 28% −$11
sports 10% −$6
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 105 -2.3% -11.6% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 4% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage129d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $267 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $376 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $193 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $247 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $252 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $468 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,303 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $361 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $444 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $181 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $186 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $187 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $270 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 06 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 05 $205 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 22h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 30h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 23d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $187 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $193 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $193 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $229 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $229 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 26d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $206 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $206 27d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $191 27d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $191 28d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $221 28d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $221 29d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $213 29d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $213 30d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $252 30d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $252 31d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $244 31d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $244 31d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $185 33d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $185 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $232 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $232 33d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $206 33d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $206 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records