Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x4292…a0c2 crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$445 (+0%) realized +$445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate87%67W / 10L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1,410per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$386
7 days+$386
14 days+$385
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$119
politics 5% $0
other 2% +$387
world 2% −$10
economics 2% −$2
sports 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +28.2% +16.0% 100% 100% +16.8%
≤30d 5 +9.5% -0.9% 60% 40% +15.3%
≤90d 6 +8.2% -2.1% 67% 33% +14.7%
all 77 +0.6% -9.0% 87% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,360) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.64 per $1 lost it wins $4.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses67 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage257d
Avg bet$1,410
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? Jun 19 $724 +$271 +37%
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Jun 19 $606 +$115 +19%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $38 −$1 -2%
Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch? Jun 08 $1 $0 -7%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $1,607 −$11 -1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 01 $34 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st? Mar 01 $416 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Feb 24 $1,106 −$95 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $4,214 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $4,210 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $4,206 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $4,200 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $4,196 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 16? Feb 17 $4,191 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $4,187 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 14? Feb 15 $4,183 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 13? Feb 14 $4,172 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $616 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,651 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,895 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $1,124 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 10? Feb 11 $3,034 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 9? Feb 10 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 9? Feb 10 $2,531 +$3 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 February 2-8? Feb 09 $61 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8? Feb 09 $1,011 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 2-8? Feb 09 $1,457 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on January 28? Jan 28 $1,272 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on January 27? Jan 28 $1,271 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 26? Jan 27 $1,270 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 27 Jan 26 $1,270 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25? Jan 26 $1,268 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 25? Jan 26 $1,267 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of Jan 24 $1,266 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $1,264 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 20? Jan 21 $1,263 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18? Jan 19 $1,262 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 17? Jan 18 $1,261 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 12 above $285? Jan 17 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 15? Jan 16 $1,258 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Jan 15 $1,257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 13? Jan 14 $1,256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 10? Jan 11 $1,253 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 8? Jan 09 $1,253 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on December 8? Dec 09 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on December 8? Dec 09 $1,278 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 47¢ $126 1h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 62¢ $438 3h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 71¢ $141 4h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? SELL Yes 39¢ $24 4h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? SELL Yes 41¢ $38 4h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 5h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? SELL Yes 52¢ $382 5h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 5h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 6h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 6h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? BUY Yes 45¢ $47 6h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? SELL Yes 47¢ $120 6h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 62¢ $88 6h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? SELL Yes 51¢ $126 6h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? BUY Yes 40¢ $68 6h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? BUY Yes 39¢ $450 6h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 67¢ $16 6h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 6h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 64¢ $180 6h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 45¢ $92 6h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 43¢ $632 6h
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 47¢ $38 11d
Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 48¢ $38 12d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 54d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 99¢ $35 109d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 75¢ $1,006 109d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 76¢ $872 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records