Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4292…4a08 other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26,949 (-51%) realized −$27,272 · open +$323
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,183per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$11,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$377
14 days−$27,517
30 days−$27,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$27,646
sports 2% +$510
world 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +72.5% +56.1% 70% 30% -11.8%
≤30d 24 +65.3% +49.6% 67% 29% -77.6%
≤90d 24 +65.3% +49.6% 67% 29% -77.6%
all 24 +65.3% +49.6% 67% 29% -77.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.6% 29% -77.6%
10% +35.3% 17% -79.8%
15% ← realistic here +22.2% 8% -81.7%
20% +10.2% 8% -83.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$769) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +130% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$3,591 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$11,304
Realized−$27,272
Unrealized+$323
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions21
Markets (closed)24 / 45
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,183
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $5,601 $5,759 +$158 (+3%)
Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 75¢ 80¢ $1,206 $1,284 +$78 (+6%)
Over $1M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $834 $836 +$2 (+0%)
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 60¢ 65¢ $557 $604 +$47 (+8%)
Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 93¢ 96¢ $407 $421 +$14 (+3%)
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 90¢ 91¢ $378 $381 +$3 (+1%)
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $364 $373 +$9 (+2%)
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 40¢ 34¢ $439 $365 −$74 (-17%)
Over $30M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 91¢ 92¢ $264 $268 +$4 (+2%)
Laso Finance FDV above $5M one day after launch Yes 64¢ 64¢ $251 $248 −$3 (-1%)
Laso Finance FDV above $1M one day after launch Yes 91¢ 94¢ $206 $213 +$7 (+3%)
Laso Finance FDV above $3M one day after launch Yes 90¢ 90¢ $153 $153 +$0 (+0%)
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $93 $99 +$6 (+6%)
Laso Finance FDV above $20M one day after launch Yes 12¢ $31 $95 +$64 (+210%)
Laso Finance FDV above $8M one day after launch Yes 52¢ 50¢ $52 $50 −$1 (-3%)
Over $100M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 96¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Laso Finance FDV above $12M one day after launch Yes 26¢ 34¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+33%)
Laso Finance FDV above $10M one day after launch Yes 37¢ 40¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 66¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? Jun 28 $602 +$87 +14%
Over $80M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 28 $165 +$3 +2%
Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 28 $130 +$24 +19%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $254 +$289 +114%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 28 $1,630 +$36 +2%
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 27 $714 +$59 +8%
Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 27 $658 +$92 +14%
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 27 $996 +$48 +5%
Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 27 $349 +$100 +29%
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 27 $95 +$4 +4%
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 27 $186 −$111 -60%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $12 −$11 -92%
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 27 $156 −$117 -75%
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 27 $738 −$518 -70%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $350 +$10 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $958 +$42 +4%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $769 −$769 -100%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $781 +$220 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $990 +$180 +18%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $150 +$13 +9%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27,430 −$27,140 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No $0 19m
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? SELL No 94¢ $1 50m
Laso Finance FDV above $12M one day after launch BUY Yes 26¢ $8 54m
Over $80M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL No 98¢ $65 1h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No $5 1h
Over $1M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL Yes 93¢ $93 1h
Laso Finance FDV above $5M one day after launch BUY Yes 56¢ $110 1h
Laso Finance FDV above $1M one day after launch BUY Yes 91¢ $201 1h
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? SELL No 94¢ $12 1h
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 90¢ $18 1h
Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL Yes 13¢ $57 1h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 34¢ $36 1h
Over $1M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY Yes 92¢ $652 1h
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 55¢ $110 2h
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? BUY No 88¢ $12 5h
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? SELL No 93¢ $284 8h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $254 9h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $83 9h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $67 9h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $26 9h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $5 9h
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? SELL No 93¢ $284 9h
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? SELL No 93¢ $90 9h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $3 9h
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? BUY No 90¢ $360 9h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $273 9h
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? SELL No 93¢ $12 9h
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? BUY No 89¢ $98 9h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $746 10h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $142 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,304.07 · official $11,303.96 (match) · 266 history records