Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4293…792f crypto 461 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (368 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,117 (-8%) realized −$1,117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate24%197W / 640L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day367.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,594
7 days−$1,765
14 days−$1,776
30 days−$1,776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$25
other 2% −$202
sports 2% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (368 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 523 -77.3% -79.4% 13% 1% -35.0%
≤30d 837 -52.7% -57.2% 24% 1% -19.7%
≤90d 837 -52.7% -57.2% 24% 1% -19.7%
all 837 -52.7% -57.2% 24% 1% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover367.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.2% 1% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -61.3% 1% -27.3%
15% -65.1% 1% -34.4%
20% -68.5% 1% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses197 / 640
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)837 / 461
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day367.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 837 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 465 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $183 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $183 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.90 · official $3.90 (match) · 3500 history records