Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4298…c485 sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$325 (-24%) realized −$245 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$371
other 8% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.5% -42.6% 20% 20% -36.6%
≤30d 35 +8.0% -2.3% 31% 31% -44.0%
≤90d 38 +15.4% +4.4% 34% 34% -35.8%
all 38 +15.4% +4.4% 34% 34% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 34% -35.8%
10% -5.6% 34% -41.9%
15% -14.7% 34% -47.5%
20% -23.1% 29% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +114% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$33 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$245
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage34d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ 24¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 41¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$98 +217%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $91 −$90 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 29 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $17 +$30 +177%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $51 +$22 +43%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $12 +$11 +89%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $15 +$50 +325%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $10 +$23 +226%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $9 +$115 +1239%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $35 −$30 -86%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $15 +$20 +128%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $36 +$15 +42%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $22 +$13 +59%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $10 +$12 +119%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $29 +$18 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $21 +$74 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $17 6m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $102 15m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 39m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 47¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $91 22h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $34 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $14 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $31 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $22 26h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 33¢ $15 27h
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 34¢ $29 20d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 29¢ $20 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 73¢ $19 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 54¢ $20 20d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY Sharks 29¢ $23 20d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 28¢ $47 22d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs SELL Sharks 100¢ $47 22d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY Sharks 36¢ $14 22d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY Sharks 36¢ $3 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 15¢ $5 22d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic SELL Joao Fonseca 73¢ $72 22d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 25¢ $24 22d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 25¢ $18 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic BUY Joao Fonseca 50¢ $51 22d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 39¢ $41 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $67 22d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 55¢ $44 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson BUY Lois Boisson 37¢ $22 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.72 · official $114.72 (match) · 74 history records