Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4299…c8d8 world 46 markets active 3h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 20% −$3
politics 15% −$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.8%
all 45 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage300d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $38 −$3 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $32 +$3 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $68 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $56 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $24 −$3 -13%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $16 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 29 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 27 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 25 $25 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 23 $2 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $18 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $34 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $23 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $32 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $32 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $32 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records