Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x429a…7745 crypto 1086 markets active 6h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,296 (-8%) realized −$1,296 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate88%956W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$705
14 days−$646
30 days−$1,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$561
other 16% −$435
world 9% −$138
politics 3% +$7
finance 2% −$1
sports 2% −$89
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -8.1% -16.8% 79% 5% -36.7%
≤30d 724 -2.3% -11.6% 84% 20% -17.6%
≤90d 1086 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 15% -16.0%
all 1086 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 15% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 15% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 7% -24.0%
15% -27.0% 3% -31.4%
20% -34.1% 2% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,296
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses956 / 130
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1086 / 1086
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1086 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$197 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $180 −$173 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $120 −$16 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $121 −$21 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $214 +$75 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $262 +$159 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records