Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

42 0x429d…51c3 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$65 (+2%) realized +$120 · open −$55

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$292per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-30.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-23.1%	-30.4%	44%	44%	-7.4%
≤30d	9	-23.1%	-30.4%	44%	44%	-7.4%
≤90d	9	-23.1%	-30.4%	44%	44%	-7.4%
all	9	-23.1%	-30.4%	44%	44%	-7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.4%	44%	-7.4%
10%	-37.1%	44%	-16.2%
15%	-43.2%	44%	-24.3%
20%	-48.7%	33%	-31.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$284 vs −$214 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$346

Realized+$120

Unrealized−$55

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage4d

Avg bet$292

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	67¢	64¢	$300	$289	−$11 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	7¢	$101	$57	−$44 (-44%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$508	−$500	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$886	+$705	+80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$153	+$110	+72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$254	+$156	+61%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$353	+$166	+47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$265	−$181	-68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$341	−$341	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$37	−$37	-100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$304	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	58¢	$153	10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$356	10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	34¢	$211	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$674	37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$254	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$153	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	67¢	$353	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	18¢	$84	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$265	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$37	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	35¢	$50	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$204	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$88	4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$105	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.98 · official $345.98 (match) · 28 history records