Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x429f…05e4 weather 364 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$29 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%120W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$18
14 days−$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 40% -12.7%
≤30d 335 -3.6% -12.8% 34% 34% -9.6%
≤90d 348 -3.7% -12.8% 34% 34% -9.6%
all 348 -3.7% -12.8% 34% 34% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 34% -9.6%
10% -21.2% 33% -18.2%
15% -28.8% 32% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 31% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses120 / 228
Open positions16
Markets (closed)348 / 364
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Yes 69¢ 96¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 42¢ 89¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+112%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 36¢ 57¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 70¢ 51¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 15? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 54¢ 37¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 46¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 62¢ 16¢ $6 $2 −$5 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 46¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$13 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $8 +$12 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $12 +$8 +66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $12 +$8 +72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$14 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$12 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $10 −$9 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$7 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -80%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $8 +$7 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$11 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +228%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$7 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 +$7 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 2m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 63¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.25 · official $76.25 (match) · 619 history records