Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42a3…66d5 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$20 (-12%) realized −$15 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$13
politics 30% +$31
culture 24% −$27
world 4% −$5
crypto 2% −$3
tech 1% −$2
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 36 -30.5% -37.1% 11% 11% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 11% -21.4%
10% -43.1% 11% -29.0%
15% -48.6% 11% -35.8%
20% -53.7% 11% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -95% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$3 · ×6.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 32
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage250d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 48¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th A Feb 15 $1 +$4 +427%
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Feb 15 $2 +$5 +270%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 29 $5 +$57 +1132%
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Jan 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Jan 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 22 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th A Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Miles Caton be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Ac Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal Jan 22 $8 +$12 +150%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethan Hawke be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Award Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Dec 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will António José Seguro win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 202 Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Dec 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13? Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Portugal end in a draw? Nov 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awa Nov 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Nov 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alexandra Leitão be elected Mayor of Lisbon? Oct 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? Oct 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 138d
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 145d
Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th A BUY Yes 10¢ $1 145d
Will Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th A BUY Yes 19¢ $1 145d
Will Miles Caton be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Ac BUY Yes 18¢ $1 145d
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy BUY Yes 16¢ $2 145d
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th BUY Yes 27¢ $2 145d
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy BUY No 9¢ $2 145d
Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal BUY Yes 40¢ $8 151d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 151d
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 155d
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 156d
Will Ethan Hawke be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Award BUY No 19¢ $3 156d
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy BUY Yes 11¢ $5 156d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 156d
Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 168d
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 168d
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards BUY No 18¢ $3 168d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY No 29¢ $5 169d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $2 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.50 · official $39.50 (match) · 60 history records