Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42a6…0d41 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$580 (-20%) realized −$560 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%44W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$555
14 days−$522
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$76
sports 38% −$271
crypto 16% −$198
finance 2% +$11
world 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -7.2% -16.0% 25% 25% -44.2%
≤30d 66 -5.5% -14.5% 27% 27% -35.1%
≤90d 115 -0.8% -10.2% 34% 34% -28.2%
all 130 -5.1% -14.1% 34% 33% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 33% -27.1%
10% -22.4% 33% -34.0%
15% -29.9% 31% -40.4%
20% -36.7% 28% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$19 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$560
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses44 / 86
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage198d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $33 $27 −$6 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $26 −$14 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 18 $30 −$1 -4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +343%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$40 +197%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$19 +64%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$25 +123%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $22 +$30 +134%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $30 +$17 +55%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $30 +$10 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-15.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 26? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 90¢ $35 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $9 3h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 21h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $20 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $10 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $20 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $25 22h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 64¢ $29 43h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 65¢ $30 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 55¢ $20 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $15 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $30 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $20 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 98¢ $50 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $20 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $30 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $10 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $30 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $12 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 65¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.50 · official $53.28 (match) · 301 history records