Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

42 0x42a8…315b other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$87 (-49%) realized −$85 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-46.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-10.4%	-18.9%	50%	50%	-47.7%
≤30d	2	-10.4%	-18.9%	50%	50%	-47.7%
≤90d	3	-40.3%	-46.0%	33%	33%	-56.5%
all	3	-40.3%	-46.0%	33%	33%	-56.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-46.0%	33%	-56.5%
10%	-51.1%	33%	-60.7%
15%	-55.8%	33%	-64.5%
20%	-60.2%	33%	-68.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -52% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -40% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$43 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.29 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage

Net worth$54

Realized−$85

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage83d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	72¢	$56	$54	−$2 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$32	+$25	+79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$68	−$67	-98%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Apr 07	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$57	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$57	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$32	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	20¢	$68	3d
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	BUY Yes	14¢	$20	83d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.49 · official $54.49 (match) · 5 history records