Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42a9…495f world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 40L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
other 21% +$19
politics 13% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 25 -0.7% -10.1% 40% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.7% -10.1% 40% 4% -9.6%
all 58 +1.2% -8.4% 31% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage308d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $66 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $63 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $72 +$1 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $60 −$1 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $66 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $106 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $125 −$2 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $43 −$7 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $114 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $68 +$3 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $7 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $61 +$8 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $61 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $21 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $11 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 31 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $14 +$22 +155%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29? Aug 24 $18 $0 -2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 22 $20 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $37 39m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $29 39m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $66 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $28 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $59 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $39 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $21 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $6 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $5 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $50 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $66 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $66 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $47 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records