Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x42a9…b54f sports 45 markets active 7h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+21%) realized +$54 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$15
crypto 5% +$23
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 56% -7.6%
≤30d 37 +2.2% -7.5% 54% 54% +0.5%
≤90d 37 +2.2% -7.5% 54% 54% +0.5%
all 43 +8.6% -1.7% 51% 51% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 51% +10.4%
10% -11.1% 49% -0.2%
15% -19.7% 40% -9.8%
20% -27.6% 33% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage140d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 60¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A ReThink 56¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $5 −$2 -40%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 +$4 +50%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $8 +$16 +206%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 11 $8 +$8 +100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 10 $5 +$6 +109%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $5 +$2 +42%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $5 +$3 +56%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 +$3 +63%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$7 +67%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$3 +52%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$3 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $5 $0 -4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $5 $0 -3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $5 $0 -3%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 02 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $0 $0 -94%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $0 $0 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 04 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 01 $5 +$26 +523%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 01 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 56¢ $8 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $8 8h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 74¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 64¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 76¢ $5 5d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 83¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $8 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 55¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY 1WIN 38¢ $8 7d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 31¢ $8 8d
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY MASQ 32¢ $8 8d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 64¢ $5 10d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 50¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 50¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 50¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 50¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 50¢ $0 10d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Partizan Sangal 20¢ $8 11d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Frites Esports Club 50¢ $8 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $5 13d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 86¢ $5 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Dplus KIA 83¢ $8 14d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 70¢ $5 14d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 50¢ $5 14d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 59¢ $5 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 47¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.57 · official $7.57 (match) · 81 history records