Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42a9…9a23 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,123 (+31%) realized +$3,125 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,005per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$220
other 44% +$2,024
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.6% -35.4% 33% 33% +11.3%
≤30d 9 -28.6% -35.4% 33% 33% +11.3%
≤90d 9 -28.6% -35.4% 33% 33% +11.3%
all 9 -28.6% -35.4% 33% 33% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.4% 33% +11.3%
10% -41.6% 33% +0.6%
15% ← realistic here -47.2% 22% -9.1%
20% -52.4% 11% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,311 vs −$281 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$3,125
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,005
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $831 −$831 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $1,126 −$106 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $210 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $335 +$107 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,253 +$2,026 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,459 +$1,800 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $528 −$500 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $445 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $575 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $130 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.71 · official $11.71 (match) · 46 history records