Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42a9…f41e other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$45
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$32
sports 7% −$33
politics 4% −$2
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -39.3% -45.1% 35% 32% -12.0%
≤30d 35 -40.7% -46.4% 34% 31% -10.9%
≤90d 38 -41.0% -46.6% 32% 29% -14.2%
all 38 -41.0% -46.6% 32% 29% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.6% 29% -14.2%
10% -51.7% 26% -22.4%
15% -56.4% 21% -29.9%
20% -60.6% 11% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$23 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage39d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $140 −$65 -46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $94 +$171 +181%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $546 +$194 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$17 +77%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$10 +28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$21 +45%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$5 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 −$218 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$13 +81%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 +$15 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 +$7 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$28 +94%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 20 $72 −$2 -3%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 19 $76 −$62 -81%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? May 19 $14 −$7 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $44 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 64¢ $54 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 64¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 44h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 7¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 7¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 7¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 7¢ $4 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 19¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 19¢ $6 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 19¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records