Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42ab…9a16 other 35 markets active 4h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$3
other 27% +$1
sports 15% $0
politics 12% −$1
weather 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 22% 11% -10.8%
≤90d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 22% 11% -10.8%
all 35 +0.7% -8.9% 49% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -10.0%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.6%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage473d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $33 −$3 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 +38%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 07 $2 $0 +8%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $3 $0 +5%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 18 $6 −$1 -26%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $18 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 12 $18 $0 +1%
Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Mar 03 $7 $0 +3%
St. Louis vs. Dayton Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $43 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $13 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $30 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $15 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $15 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $36 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 6¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records