Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42b0…e28a world 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$5
politics 22% $0
other 19% −$7
sports 11% −$5
economics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.8% -12.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 5% -10.3%
≤90d 63 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 5% -9.7%
all 68 -5.4% -14.4% 44% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 4% -10.2%
10% -22.6% 1% -18.8%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage526d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $62 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $3 $0 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $115 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $57 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $33 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $29 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $34 −$6 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $6 $0 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $34 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $71 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $56 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $31 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $48 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $31 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $69 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $29 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $29 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $12 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $16 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $16 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $29 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $18 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $11 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records