Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42b2…4655
politics · 111 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,220 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,234 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$377
Realized−$2,234
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses27 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,051
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $376 $377 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,756 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,832 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,197 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $645 +$1 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,803 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,653 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,721 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,740 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $753 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $353 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $371 +$1 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $3,058 −$3 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4,329 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,560 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $6,102 −$6 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,405 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,759 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,911 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,450 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,362 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $178 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1,318 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 06 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 49% −$65
other 30% −$67
sports 14% −$2,101
culture 3% −$4
world 1% $0
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,026 2h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $735 22h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $736 25h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,058 37h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,059 44h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,015 45h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,016 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $974 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $976 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $969 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $970 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,077 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,078 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $987 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $989 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,093 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,094 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,188 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,062 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,064 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $729 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $730 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $407 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $407 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $550 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $551 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -11.6% -20.0% 7% 1% -12.0%
all 110 +2.5% -7.2% 25% 12% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 12% -11.3%
10% -16.1% 12% -19.8%
15% -24.2% 10% -27.5%
20% -31.6% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.25 · official $377.25 (match) · 345 history records