Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42b4…5278 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$2
world 38% +$2
sports 20% −$4
finance 1% +$2
economics 1% +$1
politics 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -4.5% -13.6% 30% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 40 -5.5% -14.5% 30% 0% -9.3%
all 42 -10.0% -18.5% 29% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -26.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 30
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage532d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $35 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $36 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $59 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $14 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $35 +$2 +6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $834 +$2 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $243 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $241 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $268 −$2 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $42 $0 -1%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Oilers vs. Bruins Jan 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference Jan 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $22 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.60 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records