Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
42 0x42b7…77dc sports 499 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,705 (-2%) realized −$4,090 · open −$615
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%221W / 275L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day64.3pace
Fees−$3,932est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$9,499
other 1% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -2.9% -12.2% 47% 45% -3.6%
≤30d 311 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 45% -6.9%
≤90d 496 -3.8% -12.9% 45% 44% -12.9%
all 496 -3.8% -12.9% 45% 44% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 44% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 43% -21.3%
15% -28.9% 42% -28.9%
20% -35.9% 40% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$648) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$492 vs −$428 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$587
Realized−$4,090
Unrealized−$615
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses221 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$3,932
Open positions3
Markets (closed)496 / 499
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$488
Trades / day64.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Under 55¢ 64¢ $502 $584 +$82 (+16%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Under 67¢ 0¢ $366 $2 −$364 (-99%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Under 47¢ 0¢ $334 $1 −$334 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $127 +$240 +188%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $127 +$239 +188%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $105 −$103 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $116 +$71 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $268 +$353 +132%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $409 +$312 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $500 +$392 +78%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $169 +$446 +264%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $400 −$397 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $105 −$103 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $76 −$74 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $564 +$466 +83%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $181 −$179 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $193 −$192 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $303 +$718 +237%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $336 −$330 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $80 −$78 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $254 −$253 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $428 −$420 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $212 −$208 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $407 +$394 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +156%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 15 $585 −$585 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $885 −$885 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $853 −$853 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $866 +$521 +60%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $76 +$35 +46%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 14 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $297 −$297 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $263 −$263 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $108 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $252 −$252 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $263 −$263 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $373 −$373 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $319 −$319 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $241 −$241 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $224 −$224 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $248 −$248 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $671 +$401 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $455 −$455 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $239 −$239 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $509 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $134 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $28 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $0 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $20 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $6 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $68 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 46¢ $9 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 46¢ $104 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $79 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $72 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $8 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $3 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $42 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $0 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 69¢ $10 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $104 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $127 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $127 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 41¢ $57 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $18 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 39¢ $30 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 41¢ $102 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 41¢ $2 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $5 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $43 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $586.76 · official $532.02 · 3500 history records