Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42b7…abff
weather · 943 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$225 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$236 · open +$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$852
Realized+$236
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses533 / 354
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions64
Markets (closed)887 / 943
Avg bet$16
Trades / day110.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 64 History 887 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$23
14 days−$0
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 74¢ $45 $58 +$13 (+29%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 65¢ 86¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+32%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 94¢ $34 $46 +$12 (+37%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $31 $43 +$12 (+39%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $26 $42 +$16 (+62%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 60¢ $24 $42 +$17 (+71%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 97¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 81¢ 97¢ $25 $29 +$5 (+20%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 94¢ 93¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Yes 50¢ 98¢ $14 $27 +$13 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $26 $22 −$5 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? No 94¢ 94¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 39¢ 46¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? No 50¢ 62¢ $13 $17 +$3 (+25%)
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? No 99¢ 78¢ $16 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$21 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lennar (LEN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $13 +$16 +119%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $12 −$3 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$4 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $14 +$7 +52%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 11 $18 +$5 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 −$16 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$19 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$9 +388%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$7 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$5 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 63% +$231
world 10% +$53
other 10% −$84
sports 6% −$69
politics 4% +$35
finance 3% −$56
crypto 2% +$166
tech 1% +$2
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 1m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 7m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 71¢ $30 10m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $21 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 31m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $70 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 13¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $35 55m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $14 55m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 89¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 -2.5% -11.8% 61% 31% -9.1%
≤30d 887 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 36% -9.1%
≤90d 887 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 36% -9.1%
all 887 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 36% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 36% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 23% -17.8%
15% -24.6% 16% -25.7%
20% -32.0% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $851.97 · official $849.13 (match) · 3500 history records