Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42ba…7df5 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$320 (-36%) realized −$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$269
other 12% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -25.5%
≤30d 6 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -25.5%
≤90d 6 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -25.5%
all 6 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 50% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 33% -32.6%
15% -31.6% 33% -39.1%
20% -38.3% 17% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$110 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $325 +$46 +14%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $38 +$15 +41%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$113 +110%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $216 −$216 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 90¢ $216 5m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 16¢ $53 12m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 11¢ $0 20m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 11¢ $17 20m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 11¢ $21 52m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 77¢ $90 53m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $163 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $53 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $156 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 37¢ $155 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 39¢ $170 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 0¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $41 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $55 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $11 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $20 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records