Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42c1…8c58 weather 109 markets active 2d ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$286 (-44%) realized −$283 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate49%52W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$168
politics 9% −$26
sports 8% −$38
other 6% −$35
culture 5% −$33
crypto 1% −$3
world 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -22.3% -29.7% 55% 27% -35.0%
≤30d 23 -20.2% -27.8% 52% 26% -27.4%
≤90d 43 -22.2% -29.6% 56% 35% -37.0%
all 107 -24.0% -31.2% 49% 31% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 31% -49.4%
10% -37.8% 21% -54.2%
15% -43.8% 18% -58.6%
20% -49.3% 10% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses52 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage378d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-69%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +142%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $2 +$2 +97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +7%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur place 17th for the 2025-26 English Premier Leag May 24 $2 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 20? May 20 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on May 20? May 19 $3 $0 -13%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on May 17? May 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9? May 09 $3 $0 +11%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1? May 01 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 29 May 01 $3 $0 +13%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 14? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 13? Apr 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 5? Apr 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29 Apr 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29? Mar 29 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 19? Mar 29 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 19? Mar 19 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 25? Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C or below on December 23? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Oc Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on Oc Mar 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on Oc Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 3d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 48¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 8d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23d
Will Tottenham Hotspur place 17th for the 2025-26 English Premier Leag SELL No 2¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.76 · official $1.76 (match) · 237 history records