Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
42 0x42c4…7b8a crypto 931 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$397 (-1%) realized −$323 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%876W / 54L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$30
14 days−$145
30 days−$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$187
world 25% −$74
other 3% −$146
sports 3% −$16
economics 3% −$76
tech 2% −$23
politics 1% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 45 -4.8% -13.9% 16% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 879 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -10.2%
all 930 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses876 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)930 / 931
History coverage92d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 930 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 70¢ 48¢ $231 $157 −$74 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $472 $0 -0%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $197 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $528 +$2 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $113 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $397 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $1,506 −$37 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $2,406 +$9 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 19 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 19 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $3,560 +$16 +0%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $242 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $172 +$2 +1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 15 $38 −$10 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,270 +$20 +1%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $282 −$79 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $247 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $601 −$30 -5%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $238 −$2 -1%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $84 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $832 −$13 -2%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $178 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $783 −$18 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $356 +$3 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $150 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $219 −$5 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $241 +$8 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $399 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $209 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $283 −$34 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 04 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $289 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $376 −$29 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 02 $254 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $497 −$16 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $917 −$10 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $222 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $98 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1,755 −$195 -11%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 28 $144 −$15 -10%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $506 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 26 $118 −$1 -1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 26 $500 −$7 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 25 $122 −$11 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $237 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $235 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $235 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $237 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 39¢ $0 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 39¢ $86 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 39¢ $1 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 39¢ $1 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 39¢ $4 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 39¢ $1 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 39¢ $103 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 39¢ $197 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $59 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $11 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $456 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $468 42h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 79¢ $113 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $113 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $162 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $234 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $397 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $285 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $279 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $280 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $285 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $228 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $229 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $457 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.15 · official $156.76 (match) · 2358 history records