trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +121.7% | +100.6% | 100% | 100% | +42.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -26.7% | -33.7% | 31% | 31% | +21.1% |
| all | 24 | +9.1% | -1.3% | 38% | 38% | +37.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.3% | 38% | +37.2% |
| 10% | -10.8% | 33% | +24.1% |
| 15% | -19.4% | 33% | +12.1% |
| 20% | -27.3% | 29% | +1.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $176 | $176 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $26 | $26 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | Jun 14 | $100 | +$223 | +223% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $450 | +$94 | +21% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Apr 26 | $10 | −$9 | -93% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | Apr 26 | $15 | −$13 | -84% |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? | Apr 09 | $20 | −$17 | -84% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 09 | $400 | +$217 | +54% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Apr 02 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 01 | $300 | +$123 | +41% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Mar 25 | $5 | −$1 | -21% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 25 | $14 | −$5 | -36% |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | Mar 25 | $90 | −$90 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Mar 25 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | Mar 25 | $15 | −$10 | -69% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Mar 23 | $11 | $0 | -4% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Mar 16 | $200 | −$78 | -39% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Mar 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 14 | $300 | −$58 | -19% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $107 | +$74 | +69% |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | Feb 28 | $74 | +$241 | +325% |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Feb 28 | $150 | +$166 | +111% |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | Feb 28 | $120 | +$212 | +177% |
| US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? | Feb 28 | $90 | +$257 | +285% |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | Feb 19 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | Feb 09 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |