Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x42c5…23bc sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$10,905 (+72%) realized +$10,905 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,522per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,926
7 days+$8,017
14 days+$8,017
30 days+$8,017
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$6,242
other 31% +$2,600
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+68.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +170.3% +144.5% 50% 50% +105.7%
≤30d 4 +170.3% +144.5% 50% 50% +105.7%
≤90d 8 +86.7% +68.9% 50% 50% +48.2%
all 8 +86.7% +68.9% 50% 50% +48.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +68.9% 50% +48.2%
10% +52.8% 50% +34.0%
15% +38.0% 50% +21.1%
20% +24.5% 50% +9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,823 vs −$1,612 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,905
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1,522
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,969 −$1,926 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,181 +$9,732 +824%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,166 +$1,234 +57%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2,025 +$1,365 +67%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $2,036 +$2,959 +145%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2,011 −$2,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $948 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026 BUY 17¢ $769 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 10¢ $513 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,181 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,166 6d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 42¢ $1,526 46d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,025 47d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Joshua Van 100¢ $4,995 47d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $2,011 48d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 40¢ $2,036 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records