Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42ce…37ae
crypto · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage504d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 0 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$7 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$22 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 13 $17 +$7 +38%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? May 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? May 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $281 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 27 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on August 27? Aug 26 $14 +$4 +26%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $34 $0 -1%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? Aug 21 $15 $0 -2%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $23 −$1 -3%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the Aug 15 $28 $0 -2%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 03 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Aug 02 $22 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $25 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? Jul 31 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 25? Jul 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Apr 03 $3 $0 -4%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 28? Mar 25 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $14 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025? Mar 23 $6 $0 -4%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Mar 22 $7 $0 -2%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Feb 03 $7 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Jan 29 $4 $0 -6%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? Jan 25 $7 $0 -2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 25 $7 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% −$11
sports 27% −$30
world 14% $0
crypto 9% +$31
politics 7% −$2
weather 2% −$23
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $209 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $209 7h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $214 7h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $215 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $12 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 53¢ $26 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 28d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Wild 34¢ $18 30d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 41¢ $6 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 71¢ $17 34d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 46¢ $4 37d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 41d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 42d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 80¢ $282 177d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 81¢ $284 177d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $281 177d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $281 177d
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 66¢ $36 289d
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 289d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on August 27? SELL Yes 44¢ $17 290d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on August 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 290d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 73¢ $13 294d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 74¢ $13 294d
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? SELL Yes 68¢ $15 295d
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 295d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 296d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 296d
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $14 296d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -26.0% -33.0% 17% 17% -7.8%
≤30d 7 -36.5% -42.6% 14% 14% -11.2%
≤90d 12 -51.5% -56.1% 17% 17% -14.7%
all 39 -16.4% -24.4% 23% 8% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 8% -11.8%
10% -31.6% 8% -20.2%
15% -38.2% 5% -27.9%
20% -44.3% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records