Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42ce…af44 sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$816 (-30%) realized −$811 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%53W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$873
14 days−$815
30 days−$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$813
other 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 57% -58.7%
≤30d 81 -0.5% -9.9% 65% 64% -38.7%
≤90d 81 -0.5% -9.9% 65% 64% -38.7%
all 81 -0.5% -9.9% 65% 64% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 64% -38.7%
10% -18.6% 54% -44.6%
15% -26.4% 37% -50.0%
20% -33.6% 27% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$46 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$811
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses53 / 28
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage14d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 87¢ 86¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 26¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$19 +92%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $61 +$20 +33%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 +$11 +56%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 27 $10 +$3 +34%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $10 +$6 +64%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 27 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$4 +17%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$6 +30%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 +$13 +250%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$15 +72%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $61 +$14 +24%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 +$7 +144%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +37%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $14 +$1 +9%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$7 +72%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$8 +78%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$8 +41%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $40 +$8 +21%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$10 +101%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $303 −$303 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $504 −$504 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 24 $64 +$26 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Corners Jun 23 $35 +$7 +21%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +72%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 +$8 +37%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$4 +41%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 +$9 +35%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $50 +$8 +16%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $161 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $61 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $3 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 6¢ $3 5h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 28¢ $5 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $20 26h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 74¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 80¢ $26 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 87¢ $18 3d
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) SELL Senegal 29¢ $8 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Senegal 18¢ $5 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 77¢ $20 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $20 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 31¢ $6 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 18¢ $10 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $10 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $61 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.09 · official $195.09 (match) · 167 history records