Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42ce…d2cb other 588 markets active 1h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,427 (-5%) realized −$1,399 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%300W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$7
14 days+$19
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$1,398
sports 19% −$388
crypto 2% +$101
world 2% +$188
economics 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 34% -8.7%
≤30d 44 -7.7% -16.4% 43% 39% +0.2%
≤90d 99 -17.9% -25.7% 40% 38% -25.1%
all 585 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 49% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 49% -14.6%
10% -24.2% 41% -22.7%
15% -31.5% 32% -30.2%
20% -38.2% 24% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$31 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$1,399
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses300 / 285
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)585 / 588
History coverage563d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $63 $50 −$14 (-21%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 229 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -33%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$98 +96%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $141 +$39 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$34 +222%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$7 +45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 −$6 -28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$19 +94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$14 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$13 +127%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-23? May 27 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 27 $25 +$29 +114%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 19 $26 −$25 -98%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen end in a draw? May 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will AZ win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 71¢ $29 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $15 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $18 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 78¢ $88 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 78¢ $53 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 78¢ $25 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 78¢ $14 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 78¢ $20 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 39¢ $102 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $15 14h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 14h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 48¢ $15 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $30 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $15 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $15 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 78¢ $30 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 78¢ $111 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.71 · official $79.71 (match) · 1265 history records