Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x42d0…0541 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$117 (+24%) realized +$116 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$127
other 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.0% +8.5% 75% 75% +15.3%
≤30d 4 +20.0% +8.5% 75% 75% +15.3%
≤90d 4 +20.0% +8.5% 75% 75% +15.3%
all 4 +20.0% +8.5% 75% 75% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 75% +15.3%
10% -1.9% 75% +4.3%
15% -11.3% 75% -5.8%
20% -20.0% 50% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$77 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $154 +$92 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $178 +$70 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.52 · official $31.52 (match) · 18 history records