Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42d1…d745
crypto · 228 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$10,257 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,799 · open −$6,915
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,425
Realized−$1,799
Unrealized−$6,915
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses111 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 228
History coverage31d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 227 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,527
7 days−$1,527
14 days−$1,578
30 days−$1,904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 12¢ $10,339 $3,425 −$6,915 (-67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $800 $0 −$800 (-100%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $108 −$104 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$83 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$48 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$75 -96%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $1,540 −$1,304 -85%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f Jun 02 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 26 $825 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 26 $414 +$380 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 26 $413 +$312 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 26 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 26 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 26 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 26 $105 +$181 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 26 $309 +$251 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 26 $104 +$111 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 26 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 26 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 26 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 26 $704 +$755 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 26 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 26 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 26 $104 +$100 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 26 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 26 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 26 $446 +$387 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 26 $621 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 26 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $154 +$82 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 26 $205 +$110 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 24 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 24 $156 +$170 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 24 $257 +$173 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $255 +$88 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 24 $203 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 24 $153 +$64 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 24 $619 −$551 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 24 $170 +$65 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 24 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 24 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 24 $208 −$200 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$186
politics 29% −$8,528
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $236 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $13 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $1,527 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 8d
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f SELL Yes 0¢ $2 10d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $206 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $207 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $725 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $206 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $206 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -57.6% -61.7% 22% 22% -76.8%
≤30d 209 -10.2% -18.8% 49% 49% -12.3%
≤90d 227 -11.3% -19.8% 49% 48% -12.1%
all 227 -11.3% -19.8% 49% 48% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 48% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 46% -20.5%
15% -34.5% 44% -28.2%
20% -40.9% 38% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,424.65 · official $3,424.65 (match) · 760 history records