Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42d3…5e8c
sports · 36 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$15 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage125d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 5 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 63¢ 90¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election? Yes 93¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? No 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? No 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Pisa SC vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5) FC Internazionale Milano 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? No 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Juventus FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$5 +88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $5 +$5 +104%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Mar 15 $5 +$3 +61%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-04? Mar 11 $3 +$2 +56%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Mar 11 $2 +$3 +171%
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Mar 01 $5 +$5 +100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $1 $0 -6%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 +9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5) Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $2 +$2 +82%
Juventus FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $30 $0 +0%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Pisa SC vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-09? Feb 10 $1 $0 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$7
sports 46% −$17
crypto 3% $0
world 1% −$1
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 63¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 39d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 60d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 60d
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 88d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 91d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 92d
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) BUY Atalanta BC 62¢ $5 92d
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 95d
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 96d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 37¢ $2 96d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-04? BUY No 64¢ $3 103d
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 103d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 106d
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) BUY FC Internazionale Milano 50¢ $5 107d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? BUY No 40¢ $2 107d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 107d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 107d
Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 107d
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5) BUY FC Internazionale Milano 39¢ $5 110d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-21? BUY No 55¢ $2 113d
Juventus FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $30 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 50% -6.7%
≤30d 2 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 50% -6.7%
≤90d 7 -21.2% -28.7% 43% 43% -25.6%
all 31 -22.3% -29.7% 39% 35% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 35% -18.5%
10% -36.5% 35% -26.3%
15% -42.6% 35% -33.4%
20% -48.2% 32% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.89 · official $21.89 (match) · 51 history records