Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

42 0x42d4…7303 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized +$228 · open −$261

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +93% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip

Net edge+68%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$194per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+74.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+93.0%	+74.7%	100%	100%	+74.7%
≤30d	1	+93.0%	+74.7%	100%	100%	+74.7%
≤90d	1	+93.0%	+74.7%	100%	100%	+74.7%
all	1	+93.0%	+74.7%	100%	100%	+74.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+74.7%	100%	+74.7%
10%	+57.9%	100%	+57.9%
15%	+42.7%	100%	+42.7%
20%	+28.7%	100%	+28.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +93% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +93% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$228 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$438

Realized+$228

Unrealized−$261

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$194

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	43¢	46¢	$158	$167	+$9 (+6%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	Team Liquid	24¢	24¢	$167	$164	−$3 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	59¢	58¢	$108	$107	−$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Over	53¢	0¢	$224	$0	−$224 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	47¢	0¢	$42	$0	−$42 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 29	$245	+$228	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-	BUY Team Liquid	24¢	$171	15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$227	34m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Netherlands	59¢	$109	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$161	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$472	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	51¢	$245	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	47¢	$43	2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazi	BUY	21¢	$400	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.16 · official $438.17 (match) · 8 history records