Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x42d6…01cc sports 1412 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,439 (-2%) realized −$7,420 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%919W / 491L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$1,361est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days−$166
14 days+$266
30 days−$1,381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$9,772
other 21% +$5,430
crypto 2% −$846
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -8.1% -16.8% 70% 63% -10.7%
≤30d 399 +0.3% -9.2% 68% 61% -11.6%
≤90d 1114 -5.3% -14.4% 67% 54% -10.4%
all 1410 -5.2% -14.2% 65% 54% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 54% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -19.2%
15% -29.9% 26% -27.0%
20% -36.8% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$117 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$7,420
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses919 / 491
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1,361
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1410 / 1412
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$283
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 82¢ 83¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 80¢ 57¢ $75 $54 −$21 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $251 +$30 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $502 +$66 +13%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $75 +$16 +21%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $75 +$18 +24%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $76 +$24 +32%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $76 +$23 +31%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $40 +$15 +36%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $251 +$30 +12%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $751 +$46 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $251 +$23 +9%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $76 +$28 +38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $76 +$22 +29%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $76 +$31 +40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $76 +$29 +38%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $51 +$25 +50%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $250 +$15 +6%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $251 +$18 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$78 +8%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $75 +$13 +17%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $76 +$58 +76%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $151 +$46 +31%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $251 +$20 +8%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $251 +$43 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $251 +$46 +18%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $50 +$17 +33%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $50 +$14 +27%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $151 +$44 +29%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $251 +$30 +12%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $51 +$30 +60%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $251 +$57 +23%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $76 +$26 +34%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $198 +$99 +50%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 13 $501 +$25 +5%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $98 +$17 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $605 +$275 +45%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $754 −$754 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $201 −$201 -100%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $76 +$31 +42%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $50 +$11 +21%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 82¢ $151 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $75 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $251 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $568 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $502 17h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $91 17h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 82¢ $75 19h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic SELL Caty McNally 100¢ $100 19h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $75 20h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Caty McNally 75¢ $76 20h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 79¢ $101 22h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $55 23h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 76¢ $76 23h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 73¢ $40 24h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 41¢ $15 24h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 84¢ $75 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $251 40h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif SELL Mayar Sherif 100¢ $797 41h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 92¢ $251 42h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 95¢ $501 43h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $274 44h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $104 44h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $97 44h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 66¢ $76 45h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $76 45h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken SELL Botic van de Zandschulp 100¢ $106 45h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 91¢ $251 45h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 100¢ $104 47h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $76 47h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $266 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.95 · official $231.15 · 3500 history records