Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42d9…324f world 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$14
other 18% +$1
politics 2% $0
finance 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
weather 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 4% -10.8%
≤90d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 3% -10.0%
all 67 -1.9% -11.3% 45% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage491d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $33 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $8 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $76 −$6 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $71 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $12 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $30 −$5 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $34 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $33 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $25 −$1 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $35 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1,088 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $284 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $13 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $207 −$2 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Dec 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 -11%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 27 $1 $0 +13%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 24 $2 $0 -18%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $1 $0 -14%
Will Serhou Guirassy be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 6h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $13 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $33 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $36 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $1 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $37 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $37 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 47h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $3 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $1 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $3 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $16 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records