Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42d9…0211
other · 61 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$77 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$79 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$184
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)52 / 61
History coverage3d
Avg bet$664
Trades / day1218.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 9 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $793 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $4,507 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2,491 −$2 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $59 +$20 +34%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $397 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $683 +$25 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $625 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $256 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $506 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $4,953 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 12 $149 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $42 +$21 +50%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,089 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $4,689 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $766 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $574 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $266 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1,737 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $275 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,203 −$1 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $335 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $149 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 25% +$42
economics 25% −$2
politics 19% +$17
world 16% +$18
tech 9% −$1
crypto 6% +$5
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 8m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $2 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $140 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $142 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $40 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $27 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $13 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $50 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $13 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $51 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $12 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $51 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $48 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $3 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $65 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $65 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $8 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $73 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $72 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $42 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $42 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $16 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $46 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $39 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $7 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $45 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $46 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +2.6% -7.1% 12% 6% -9.3%
≤30d 52 +2.6% -7.1% 12% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 52 +2.6% -7.1% 12% 6% -9.3%
all 52 +2.6% -7.1% 12% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1218.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 6% -9.3%
10% -16.0% 6% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.1% 4% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.32 · official $184.32 (match) · 3500 history records