Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42d9…bc6d other 186 markets active 19h ago coverage 645d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,115 (-10%) realized −$1,070 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%61W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$47
14 days+$158
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$986
other 23% +$249
sports 17% −$64
weather 13% −$281
politics 2% +$3
world 2% −$130
culture 2% +$17
economics 1% +$79
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -43.6% -49.0% 29% 29% -36.8%
≤30d 18 -49.0% -53.8% 28% 28% -3.0%
≤90d 79 -53.6% -58.0% 18% 18% -44.0%
all 170 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 32% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 32% -19.0%
10% -43.4% 28% -26.8%
15% -48.8% 24% -33.8%
20% -53.9% 20% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$36 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$1,070
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses61 / 109
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions15
Markets (closed)170 / 186
History coverage645d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $57 $82 +$25 (+44%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 76¢ $46 $61 +$16 (+34%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $38 $28 −$10 (-27%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 48¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+38%)
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 36¢ 24¢ $27 $18 −$9 (-33%)
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 46¢ 12¢ $28 $7 −$21 (-75%)
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 42¢ 14¢ $21 $7 −$14 (-68%)
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 45¢ 10¢ $16 $3 −$12 (-79%)
Will Sweden finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $40 +$34 +85%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$17 +110%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $202 +$105 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 07 $219 +$150 +69%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $149 +$154 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $142 −$140 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Casper Ruud vs. Mariano Navone: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 19 $44 +$36 +83%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 02 $100 −$12 -12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $19 +$51 +262%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $40 +$80 +200%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 14 $20 +$47 +237%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-13.5) Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
NBA Finals G6: Will Jalen Williams score 25+ points against the Pacer Apr 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5) Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Apr 14 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Florida Gators vs. Duke Blue Devils Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Apr 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $40 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $33 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 58¢ $16 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 4d
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 58¢ $18 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 38¢ $102 4d
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 58¢ $3 5d
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 42¢ $2 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $29 5d
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 32¢ $8 5d
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 42¢ $19 5d
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 47¢ $14 5d
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 46¢ $14 5d
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 36¢ $27 5d
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 29¢ $15 5d
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 45¢ $16 5d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 57¢ $46 5d
Will Sweden finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 25¢ $13 5d
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 58¢ $18 5d
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 5d
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $27 5d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.25 · official $303.73 (match) · 569 history records