Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:29:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
42 0x42db…d512 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,055 (+24%) realized +$2,063 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$1,347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$1,877
sports 6% +$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +35.5% +22.6% 77% 69% +19.6%
≤30d 13 +35.5% +22.6% 77% 69% +19.6%
≤90d 13 +35.5% +22.6% 77% 69% +19.6%
all 13 +35.5% +22.6% 77% 69% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.6% 69% +19.6%
10% +10.9% 62% +8.1%
15% +0.2% 62% -2.3%
20% -9.6% 46% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$298 vs −$237 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.18 per $1 lost it wins $4.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,347
Realized+$2,063
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$600
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1,356 $1,347 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $388 +$661 +171%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $672 +$29 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $454 +$207 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $236 +$229 +97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $255 −$155 -60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $242 +$150 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $747 −$509 -68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,260 +$658 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $711 +$394 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $255 −$47 -19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $818 +$98 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $495 +$319 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,362 44m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,049 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $388 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $701 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $672 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $661 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $454 16h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $236 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $101 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $255 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $391 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $242 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $238 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $747 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,260 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $356 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 23¢ $208 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $255 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 45¢ $344 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $356 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $818 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $814 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $495 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,347.41 · official $1,347.41 (match) · 29 history records