Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x42db…b154 other 8 markets active 6h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$274 (-37%) realized −$199 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$68
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$95
sports 7% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 43% -48.3%
≤90d 7 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 43% -48.3%
all 7 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 43% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 43% -48.3%
10% -35.6% 43% -53.3%
15% -41.8% 43% -57.8%
20% -47.5% 29% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$19 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$511
Realized−$199
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage18d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $586 $511 −$75 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $50 −$12 -25%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$6 +78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $183 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $144 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $38 12d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 13d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $15 13d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $8 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $239 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $511.36 · official $511.36 (match) · 34 history records