Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
42 0x42dd…5d2b sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,890 (+5%) realized +$1,851 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%49W / 49L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$652est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,445
7 days−$2,072
14 days−$1,658
30 days+$1,542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,581
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 29% -25.8%
≤30d 98 +10.7% +0.2% 50% 41% -5.1%
≤90d 98 +10.7% +0.2% 50% 41% -5.1%
all 98 +10.7% +0.2% 50% 41% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.2% 41% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.4% 39% -14.2%
15% -18.2% 38% -22.4%
20% -26.2% 36% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +31% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$193 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$686
Realized+$1,851
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses49 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$652
Open positions6
Markets (closed)98 / 104
History coverage18d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Nigeria 36¢ 40¢ $403 $448 +$45 (+11%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 45¢ 44¢ $97 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 56¢ 66¢ $57 $68 +$11 (+19%)
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season Contra 61¢ 60¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Bangladesh 40¢ 43¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season OXEN 34¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $1,050 −$406 -39%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $616 +$456 +74%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $53 −$6 -12%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 18 $484 +$73 +15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $83 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 17 $10 −$1 -13%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $660 −$81 -12%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $80 −$72 -90%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 17 $767 −$421 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $717 −$717 -100%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $188 −$52 -28%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $49 −$48 -99%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 16 $613 −$256 -42%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $356 +$454 +127%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $58 +$2 +4%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $684 +$606 +89%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $727 −$102 -14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $42 +$58 +140%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $135 +$188 +139%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $28 +$47 +172%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $1,283 −$1,279 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $11 +$23 +218%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Minkens finest (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $50 −$48 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $332 +$704 +212%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $420 +$181 +43%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $232 +$54 +23%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $868 +$355 +41%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 12 $677 −$597 -88%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $313 −$308 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $551 −$551 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 11 $1,028 −$219 -21%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $331 +$275 +83%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $408 −$151 -37%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $115 +$125 +108%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $530 +$364 +69%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $733 +$104 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 09 $19 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $222 −$222 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea SELL Contra 61¢ $110 45m
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea SELL Contra 61¢ $23 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea SELL Contra 61¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea SELL Contra 61¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Contra 61¢ $32 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Contra 61¢ $16 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Contra 61¢ $61 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Contra 61¢ $61 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Contra 61¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 60¢ $189 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 60¢ $420 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $638 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 36¢ $336 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 36¢ $36 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 36¢ $32 2h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL OXEN 31¢ $5 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 34¢ $5 4h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 34¢ $16 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 40¢ $8 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 40¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 63¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 64¢ $384 17h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL HOTU 63¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL HOTU 63¢ $180 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL HOTU 63¢ $180 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL HOTU 63¢ $12 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL HOTU 64¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL HOTU 63¢ $17 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL HOTU 63¢ $180 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL HOTU 63¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $685.80 · official $685.80 (match) · 690 history records