Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x42e1…a1d2 crypto 50 markets active 3h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,584 (+13%) realized +$2,591 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$2,821
other 10% +$416
politics 8% +$44
crypto 5% +$71
sports 4% −$679
economics 0% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 -25.6% -32.7% 62% 50% +9.2%
all 45 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 38% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 38% +3.7%
10% -18.7% 29% -6.2%
15% -26.5% 20% -15.3%
20% -33.7% 13% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$52 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized+$2,591
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage337d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Yes 87¢ 95¢ $261 $285 +$24 (+9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 59¢ 76¢ $88 $114 +$26 (+29%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $133 $112 −$21 (-16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? No 11¢ 3¢ $50 $14 −$35 (-71%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $750 +$164 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 30 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 30 $107 −$5 -5%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 13 $78 +$18 +23%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 17 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 17 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 17 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 16 $44 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 15 $40 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 15 $110 +$49 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 15 $50 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 15 $20 +$14 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 15 $110 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 15 $114 +$64 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 15 $34 +$85 +252%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $304 +$73 +24%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 31 $822 −$679 -83%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 17 $747 −$27 -4%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $225 −$210 -93%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $348 +$624 +179%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 28 $11,616 +$2,460 +21%
Solana Up or Down - December 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Dec 19 $10 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Nov 23 $1 +$6 +509%
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Oct 28 $100 −$18 -18%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 05 $489 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Aug 08 $223 +$158 +71%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 07 $96 +$35 +36%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Tuesday? Jul 29 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Saturday? Jul 26 $59 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 23 $979 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 11¢ $51 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $262 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $90 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $57 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 45d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 45d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $394 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $34 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $108 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 55d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 56d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 56d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 57d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 72d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 72d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 72d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.55 · official $525.49 (match) · 399 history records