Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42e3…6acf world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$8
other 26% +$26
politics 8% +$1
crypto 6% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 26% 5% -10.5%
≤90d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 26% 5% -10.5%
all 43 +3.7% -6.2% 51% 5% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 5% -8.1%
10% -15.2% 2% -16.9%
15% -23.4% 2% -24.9%
20% -30.9% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage475d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $72 −$1 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $42 −$3 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $62 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $62 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $47 −$2 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $19 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +20%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 14 $17 $0 -1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $8 +$26 +340%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 25 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $40 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $40 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $18 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $15 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $27 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $7 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $29 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $8 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $41 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records