Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42e5…ea08 politics 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$8
other 19% −$2
sports 13% −$4
crypto 6% −$1
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 67 -11.9% -20.3% 6% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 1% -9.8%
10% -27.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -34.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -41.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage274d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $75 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $2 +$1 +24%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $1 $0 -49%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 05 $4 −$4 -90%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 05 $78 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 31 $75 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $78 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $165 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $169 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $81 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $2 $0 -14%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $86 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $89 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 14 $88 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 12 $1 $0 -50%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 01 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 28 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $86 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $74 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $74 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 24d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 108d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 108d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 111d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $1 112d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 112d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 115d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 118d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 119d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 119d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $78 119d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $78 124d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 136d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $77 136d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $78 141d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 141d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 141d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 141d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $75 141d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $75 142d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.85 · official $74.85 (match) · 297 history records