Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42e6…8648 crypto 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$289 (-10%) realized −$289 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate79%80W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$225
weather 5% −$27
other 4% −$38
finance 3% −$7
sports 2% +$6
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
world 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -39.7% -45.4% 50% 0% -48.9%
all 101 -5.8% -14.7% 79% 27% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 27% -18.7%
10% -22.9% 13% -26.4%
15% -30.4% 6% -33.5%
20% -37.2% 2% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$26 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses80 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage235d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $8 −$4 -49%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 30 $6 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 23? Mar 23 $37 +$3 +8%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 23 $33 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23? Mar 23 $24 +$9 +37%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 22 $22 +$2 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 20? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Mar 22 $17 +$5 +31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Mar 22 $48 −$41 -86%
Sabres vs. Sharks Mar 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 20 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 11PM ET Mar 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 1AM ET Mar 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 4, 8AM ET Mar 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 12PM ET Mar 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8PM ET Mar 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15 Mar 15 $49 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 8? Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 39 and 41 million views on wee Feb 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5 Feb 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39.5 and 40.0 million views on d Feb 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 37 and 39 million views on wee Feb 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on February 26? Feb 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 50 and 55 million views on wee Feb 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on February 25? Feb 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 24 $2 $0 +8%
Kings vs. Spurs Feb 22 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) Feb 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 21 $1 $0 +1%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Gro Feb 21 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 18 $56 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 18 $41 +$15 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 3AM ET Jan 18 $21 +$20 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 18 $13 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down on December 19? Dec 19 $31 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Dec 19 $31 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 10PM ET Dec 19 $23 +$7 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Dec 19 $3 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $31 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? BUY Up 85¢ $2 82d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? SELL Up 100¢ $2 82d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? BUY Up 78¢ $2 83d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? SELL Down 21¢ $2 83d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? BUY Down 72¢ $6 83d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 83d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 84d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 99¢ $6 84d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $6 86d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? BUY No 68¢ $40 89d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 23? SELL No 99¢ $40 89d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 23? BUY No 92¢ $37 90d
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Connecticut Huskies 100¢ $37 90d
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Connecticut Huskies 88¢ $33 90d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23? SELL No 100¢ $33 90d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23? BUY No 73¢ $24 90d
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers SELL Purdue Boilermakers 100¢ $24 90d
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers BUY Purdue Boilermakers 92¢ $22 90d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 100¢ $22 90d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 76¢ $17 91d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL No 9¢ $7 91d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 63¢ $48 91d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 20? BUY Up 66¢ $1 93d
Sabres vs. Sharks SELL Sabres 100¢ $1 93d
Sabres vs. Sharks BUY Sabres 96¢ $1 93d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $53 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.16 · official $35.16 (match) · 238 history records