Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42e7…d4cc
crypto · 745 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$653 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$842 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$842
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses475 / 270
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)745 / 745
History coverage52d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 0 History 745 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$151
14 days−$441
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? No 76¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 5.5 Over 76¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? No 79¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Under 86¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 74¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 3.5 Under 84¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 +$41 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $202 +$74 +37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $601 +$30 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 +$11 +22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 11 $101 +$26 +26%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $201 +$26 +13%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $101 +$20 +20%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $100 +$10 +10%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $101 −$62 -61%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $50 +$4 +9%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $201 +$62 +31%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +56%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $89 −$89 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $20 +$9 +44%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $57 −$56 -99%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $34 +$10 +29%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $50 +$18 +36%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $4 +$2 +50%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $69 +$37 +53%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $40 +$8 +20%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $57 +$12 +21%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $50 +$7 +13%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $52 +$43 +84%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $20 +$3 +15%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $77 +$13 +17%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $63 +$14 +22%
Cyprus leading at halftime? Jun 07 $15 +$9 +62%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $48 +$6 +12%
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$20 +67%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $28 +$10 +34%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $20 +$8 +40%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $61 −$61 -99%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $20 +$15 +74%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $80 +$14 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% −$44
crypto 29% −$279
other 5% −$522
world 0% +$21
politics 0% −$6
culture 0% −$10
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $58 29m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $92 29m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 86¢ $50 48m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 49m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $125 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $275 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 46h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $631 46h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $601 46h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $61 46h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 47h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 70¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 3d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $226 3d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $121 3d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $110 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +7.3% -3.0% 78% 68% -4.4%
≤30d 335 -3.5% -12.7% 69% 60% -11.7%
≤90d 745 -10.2% -18.8% 64% 47% -12.4%
all 745 -10.2% -18.8% 64% 47% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 47% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 30% -20.8%
15% -33.6% 17% -28.5%
20% -40.1% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1795 history records