Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42e8…57ec other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$3 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate68%26W / 12L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 24% +$1
world 22% +$3
economics 15% −$4
crypto 14% +$6
politics 12% +$1
sports 7% −$15
finance 3% +$6
tech 2% +$1
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +5.6% -4.5% 80% 60% -10.0%
≤90d 24 +1.8% -7.9% 79% 33% -9.0%
all 38 +2.4% -7.4% 68% 24% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 24% -9.0%
10% -16.2% 8% -17.7%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses26 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)38 / 55
History coverage130d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 58¢ 20¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 81¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $19 −$7 -38%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $12 +$4 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 04 $16 +$2 +13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $23 −$7 -32%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 04 $11 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 04 $13 +$1 +9%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 04 $19 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 27 $11 +$1 +12%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $23 −$3 -11%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 07 $24 +$4 +18%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $40 −$14 -35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Apr 01 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $13 +$1 +11%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 01 $13 +$1 +5%
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $21 +$11 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 31 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of March 20 Mar 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 20 $23 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 20 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 16? Mar 20 $22 $0 +1%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 05 $3 $0 +8%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Mar 01 $23 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 01 $47 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $18 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 16 $57 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 19¢ $2 9d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $11 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $9 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $9 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 81¢ $11 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.23 · official $37.94 · 216 history records