Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42ea…9aa9 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 112L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$14
politics 28% −$9
sports 14% +$45
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×9.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 112
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage133d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $259 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $204 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $197 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $222 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $381 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $254 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $402 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $215 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $245 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 30 $211 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $221 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $195 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $423 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $178 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $230 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $202 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $428 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $358 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $383 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $389 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 17 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $397 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 17h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 17h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $180 20d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $181 22d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 24d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 31d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $204 36d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $204 38d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 45d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $197 46d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 46d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 47d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $222 48d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $222 48d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $211 48d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $211 48d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $202 48d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $202 49d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $187 49d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $187 49d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $219 50d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $219 50d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $178 50d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $178 50d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $245 50d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $245 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records